Reef state and performance as indicators of cumulative impacts on coral reefs

Coral bleaching, cyclones, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns seastar, and reduced water quality (WQ) threaten the health resilience coral reefs. The cumulative impacts from multiple acute chronic stressors on “reef State” (i.e., total cover) Performance” deviation expected rate cover increase) have rarely been assessed simultaneously, despite their management relevance. We evaluated dynamics (total per morphological groups) in Central Southern Great Barrier Reef over 25 years, identified compared main environmental drivers State Performance at reef level (i.e. based group. Using a combination metrics that consider both frequency magnitude lagged effects, we find correlate with differed those correlating Performance. Importantly, demonstrate WQ better predict than State. Further, inter-annual (here available for subset data) improved explanatory power long-term averages. effects stressors, to lesser extent poor quality, correlated negatively some but not all groups. Tabular Acropora branching non-Acropora were most affected by demonstrating group-specific approaches aid interpretation monitoring data can be crucial detection impact pressures. highlight complexity need evaluating order prioritise local interventions.